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In 2016, the EC expects Bulgaria‘s real GDP to increase by 1.5 %, which is lower than the economic growth of 2.1 % forecast by the government.
In 2017, the EC forecasts economic growth of 2 %, which will be largely due to the expected increase in domestic demand.
The Commission notes that the Bulgarian economic growth in 2015 has been mainly driven by exports and the falling oil prices, but growth-supporting factors including the absorption of EU funds are expected to lose their strength next year.
Total investments in Bulgaria are expected to increase by 0.2 % in 2015, but a drop of 2.4 % is forecast next year before returning to a growth of 1.7 % in 2017.
Employment will register a slight growth of 0.3 % this and next year and 0.5 % in 2017, while the unemployment rate will steadily decline from 10.1 % in 2015 to 9.4 % in 2016 and further down to 8.8 % in 2017.
The EC forecasts a deflation of 0.8 % in 2015, with inflation expected to return in the next two years, reaching levels of 0.7 % in 2016 and 1.1 % in 2017.
The current account surplus is expected to steadily decrease from 1.4 % in 2015 to 1.3 % in 2016 and further down to 0.9 % in 2017.
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