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The country is expected to swing to 1.0% inflation next year from 0.5% deflation in 2015. The unemployment rate is forecast to decrease to 10.4% in 2015 and 9.8% next year from 11.4% in 2014.
An expected slowdown in public investment and continued weak private investment is likely to weigh on Bulgaria‘s growth outlook, the Commission said.
After reaching 2.8% of GDP in 2014, Bulgaria‘s general government deficit is set to remain at 2.9% of GDP in both 2015 and 2016.
The European Commission has increased its 2015 economic growth forecasts for both the EU and the Eurozone, citing a number of “positive economic tailwinds”.
“Oil prices remain relatively low, global growth is steady, the euro has continued to depreciate, and economic policies in the EU are supportive. On the monetary side, quantitative easing by the European Central Bank is having a significant impact on financial markets, contributing to lower interest rates and expectations of improving credit conditions,” according to the Commission.
As a result, real GDP in 2015 is now expected to increase by 1.8% in the EU and by 1.5% in the Eurozone, respectively 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points higher than projected three months ago. For 2016, the Commission forecasts growth of 2.1 % in the EU and of 1.9% in the euro area.
According to the Commission, “domestic demand is the main contributor to GDP growth, with an acceleration of private consumption expected this year and a rebound of investment next year”.
Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, commented: “The European economy is enjoying its brightest spring in several years, with the upturn supported by both external factors and policy measures that are beginning to bear fruit. But more needs to be done to ensure this recovery is more than a seasonal phenomenon.”
Annual inflation in both the EU and the euro area is expected to rise from 0.1% this year to 1.5% in 2016.
Unemployment in the EU and in the euro area is expected to fall in 2015 to 9.6% and 11.0% respectively, as improvements in the labour market spread across sectors.
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