The Eurostat Handbook on quarterly National Accounts defines the flash estimates as:
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„…the earliest picture of the economy according to national accounts concepts, which is produced and published as soon as possible after the end of the quarter, using a more incomplete set of information than that used for traditional quarterly accounts…”
Flash estimates for GDP in the context of general conditions for the preparation of short-term indicators are based on preliminary short-term information (subject to subsequent update and revisions) expert assessments and models for the components of GDP structure, for which direct basic information at the time of calculation is not available. Flash estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2017 were prepared within 45 days after the reference period.
They are presented in a standard format for publication of quarterly national accounts data – current prices, relative shares of the components in the GDP structure and growth rates as compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same period of the previous year. According to the Release Calendar, the NSI will prepare and publish preliminary quarterly estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2017 on March 7th 2018. GDP in monetary terms, current prices According to the flash GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of 2017, the GDP at current prices amounted to 27 875 million BGN.
In the structure of GDP by the expenditure approach the largest share has the final consumption (82.3%), which in nominal terms amounted to 22 954 million BGN. In the fourth quarter of 2017 gross capital formation is 6 297 million BGN and has a share of 22.6% in GDP. The external balance (exports minus imports) has a negative sign.
According to the seasonally adjusted data1 , the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. GVA increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 0.9%. According to the flash estimates by final expenditure the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 is determined by increase of the final consumption with 2.2%.
The fourth quarter of 2017 GDP at seasonally adjusted data increased by 3.6% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Gross value added increased by 3.7%. As regards the expenditure components of GDP, the final consumption registered a positive economic growth by 4.7%. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 3.2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Exports and imports of goods and services increased by 2.0% and 9.4% respectively.
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